Pumpkin is the earliest fall signal, and the stores that win it set the shelf in the last week of August — before the leaves turn, while the shopper is still thinking summer. That is deliberate: the first jar of pumpkin on a shelf is what tells the customer the season has changed, and the store that says it first owns the trip.
The fall curve then peaks twice — mid-September and the week before Halloween — and pumpkin carries both. The second peak is the one most stores miss, because they only ordered once and sold through by October. Reorder the boxed bar rather than expanding into new scents.
Build the fixture in order: boxed bars first, because scent is what stops a shopper; the ale bar next, because it opens a men's and taproom shelf the sweet scents cannot; the Skin Sticks, Pucker Sticks and hand soap after, because that is where the second item gets added.
And while the pumpkin shelf is going up, the holiday scents are already in lead time. Put fall and holiday on one purchase order — one freight, one receiving day — so December is set in November instead of scrambled after Thanksgiving.